● Open Science & Sovereign Systems Physics

Systems Physics, Verifier Theory & Sovereign AI Inference

RoamingPigs Lab is an independent AI systems research commons founded by Cisco Caceres. We formulate mathematical limits, conduct clean-room empirical evaluations, and profile physical hardware constraints for reliable machine agency under real physical, acoustic, and computational boundaries.

Tactical Radio Channel Simulator (TRCS)

Systematic benchmark suite characterizing speech foundation model hallucination, narrow-band telephony vocoder distortion, and tactical entity extraction under defense, maritime, and public-safety channels.

Narrowband Telephony Codecs, Squelch Physics & Hallucination Suppression

Open Benchmark

Autoregressive sequence-to-sequence speech foundation models exhibit severe failure modes when exposed to operational RF channels: non-speech audio triggers 24 to 160 WPM of continuous ungrounded hallucinations, while 8 kHz low-pass filtering and low-bitrate CELP/RPE vocoders cause catastrophic phonetic collapse. TRCS establishes controlled, reproducible evaluations across clean, synthetic noise, tactical squelch, and narrowband telephone codecs.

1,050
Audio clips with cryptographic SHA-256 provenance manifest
30
Narrowband conditions (G.711 μ/A-law, AMR-NB, GSM-FR, Opus NB; Clean to -6 dB SNR)
90%–100%
Hallucination suppression via microsecond acoustic energy VAD gating
4.0%
Hull number baseline recall without grammar-constrained decoding
Channel ParameterStandard SpecificationImplementation ParametersAcoustic Physical Phenomenon
Bandwidth LimitingITU-T G.712 bandpass300 Hz – 3400 Hz (4th-order Butterworth)Fricative /s/ sibilance collapse (/s/ → /f, h, t/ causing "Sector" → "Hector")
G.711 μ-law / A-lawITU-T G.711 (PCMU/PCMA)8 kHz, 8-bit log PCM (64 kbps)PSTN, marine VHF DSC gateways, base quantization noise
AMR-NB3GPP TS 26.071 (MR122)8 kHz, ACELP vocoder (12.2 kbps)All-pole linear prediction smearing of nasal vowel anti-formants
GSM 06.10 Full-RateETSI GSM 06.10 FR8 kHz, RPE-LTP vocoder (13.0 kbps)Regular pulse excitation distortion on plosive bursts
Opus NarrowbandIETF RFC 67168 kHz, SILK mode (12.0 kbps)Tactical mesh IP radios, linear predictive noise shaping
RF Squelch TailFM Discriminator Unmuting50–150 ms bandpass noise burstTransient insertion trigger causing autoregressive hallucination loops

Verifier Error Covariance & Optimal Stopping (VEC-SCR)

Formal mathematical framework for sequential candidate selection, positive error dependence, and calibrated abstention in budgeted test-time compute.

Law of Total Error Covariance and Monotonic Sequential Stopping Bounds

Theory & Proofs

Test-time compute scaling (Best-of-N, tree search, self-correction) relies on automated verifiers and process reward models. Standard majority voting assumes verifier errors are conditionally independent. Under real-world models and prompts, positive verifier error covariance causes catastrophic voting breakdown. We formalize the covariance matrix Σε and prove that calibrated abstention eliminates false acceptance cascades.

ρ = 0.7523
Measured verifier error correlation between static and neural verifiers
Ω = 14.51×
Bayesian overconfidence factor inflating posterior log-odds by +2.68 nats
95.68%
Bayes risk reduction via continuous calibrated abstention at τ = 0.70
97.5%
Realization of theoretical Oracle Ceiling at 16.0B* budget tier
Theoretical FormulationMathematical ExpressionOperational Consequence
Theorem 1: Total Error CovarianceσAB = (1-π)σFA + πσFR + π(1-π)(αA-βA)(αB-βB)Decomposes joint error into false acceptance, false rejection, and marginal disparity components.
Lemma 1: Coupling SaturationκFA = σFA / √(αA(1-αA)αB(1-αB)) = 89.53%Empirically proves error dependence saturates 89.5% to 93.2% of the maximal Fréchet-Hoeffding upper bound.
Theorem 2: Log-Odds DegradationΔ I = ln(1 + σFA / (αA αB)) = 2.675 natsDistorts true 59.37% confidence to an inflated, false 95.49% subjective probability under naive voting.
Theorem 3: Stopping Monotonicityτ1* > τ2* > … > τK*Under asymmetric loss (CFA ≫ CFR), Bellman dynamic programming thresholds decrease monotonically across stages.

Sovereign APU Bandwidth & Energy Telemetry

Physical profiling of unified memory architectures (122.7 GB unified LPDDR5X-8000 at 256-bit bus width), memory bus saturation, Joules-per-token thermodynamic asymmetry, and full-node datacenter TCO accounting.

256.0 GB/s Bus Saturation and Joules-per-Token Telemetry

Hardware Physics

As open-weight reasoning models scale to 70B–120B parameters, datacenter API telemetry and operational expenditure pose severe constraints. We profile sovereign inference on unified APU hardware running Vulkan compute, sampling silicon package power (PPT) and AC wall-socket draw with calibrated high-frequency smart telemetry at strictly $0.00 cloud spend.

222.8 GB/s
Sustained memory bandwidth (87.0% of theoretical 256.0 GB/s peak)
21.6×
Prefill vs. decode thermodynamic asymmetry (0.1305 vs. 2.822 J/token)
$0.110
Marginal electricity cost per 1M reasoning tokens ($0.14/kWh grid tariff)
$0.715
Full amortized 3-year hardware TCO per 1M tokens (13.7× cheaper than cloud rental)
Architecture DimensionSovereign AMD APU (Strix Halo)Datacenter Cluster (8× H100 SXM5 Node)Efficiency Multiplier
Unified RAM Capacity122.7 GB Unified LPDDR5X640 GB HBM3 (80 GB / GPU)Zero PCIe host-to-device bus transfer bottleneck
Memory Bus Width256-bit (LPDDR5X-8000)5,120-bit per GPUSustains 84.1%–87.4% bus saturation across model weights
Full Node System Power108.4 W active wall draw (17.0 W idle)6,300 W IT / 8,378 W Grid (Facility PUE 1.33×)APU draws 77.3× lower peak system power
Energy per Token (Decode)2.82 Joules / token9.86 – 12.32 Joules / token (slot share)APU is 3.5× to 4.4× more energy-efficient at batch-1
Marginal Electricity Cost$0.110 per million tokens$0.384 – $0.480 per million tokensSovereign APU operational electricity is 3.5× cheaper
External Cloud SpendStrictly $0.00 / hr$16.00 – $24.00 / hr spot rental100% data sovereignty; zero remote telemetry leaks

Canonical Publications & Citations

All papers include verifiable mathematical formulations, reproducible artifacts, SHA-256 manifests, and DataCite DOIs attributed to ORCID 0009-0005-7810-5077.

Tactical Radio Channel Simulator (TRCS): Characterizing Non-Speech Audio Hallucination in Speech Foundation Models

Caceres, Cisco (2026). Published by RoamingPigs Lab & Cisco Caceres AI Systems Lab. Evaluates 6 models across 30 narrowband conditions with 1,050 audio fixtures.

@techreport{caceres2026trcs, author = {Caceres, Cisco}, title = {Tactical Radio Channel Simulator (TRCS): Characterizing Non-Speech Audio Hallucination in Speech Foundation Models}, institution = {RoamingPigs Systems & AI Research Lab}, year = {2026}, url = {https://ciscocaceres.com/downloads/tactical-radio-channel-simulator/}, orcid = {0009-0005-7810-5077}, note = {ORCID: 0009-0005-7810-5077} }

Verifier Reliability Under Budgeted Code Generation: Error Covariance and Information-Theoretic Stopping Bounds

Caceres, Cisco (2026). Published in Cisco Caceres Research Working Papers. Proves Theorem 1 (Law of Total Error Covariance) and Neyman-Pearson sequential stopping bounds.

@article{caceres2026verifier, author = {Caceres, Cisco}, title = {Verifier Reliability Under Budgeted Code Generation: Error Covariance and Information-Theoretic Stopping Bounds}, journal = {Cisco Caceres Research Working Papers}, year = {2026}, url = {https://ciscocaceres.com/downloads/verifier-reliability-budgeted-code-generation/}, orcid = {0009-0005-7810-5077}, note = {ORCID: 0009-0005-7810-5077} }

Hardware Systems Physics and Empirical Energy Telemetry of Sovereign APU Inference

Caceres, Cisco (2026). Sovereign AI Systems Research Reports. Profiles 256.0 GB/s bus saturation and Joules/token scaling across 9B to 122B parameter weights.

@article{caceres2026sovereign_apu, author = {Caceres, Cisco}, title = {Hardware Systems Physics and Empirical Energy Telemetry of Sovereign APU Inference: Memory Saturation, Prefill-Decode Asymmetry, and Datacenter Full-Node TCO}, journal = {Sovereign AI Systems Research Reports}, year = {2026}, url = {https://ciscocaceres.com/research/#paper-sovereign-economics}, orcid = {0009-0005-7810-5077}, note = {ORCID: 0009-0005-7810-5077} }

The Six Publication Readiness Gates (PRG)

Before any benchmark, dataset, research report, or evaluation ledger is published from RoamingPigs Lab, it must pass 100% of the Publication Readiness Gate checks without exceptions or flakiness.

GATE 1
Cryptographic Provenance & Fixtures
Every audio clip and evaluation candidate is cataloged in a versioned manifest with SHA-256 digests and byte counts. Zero unreferenced files on disk.
GATE 2
Clean-Room Dependency Isolation
Evaluation harnesses execute hermetically in standard Python without private host paths, network dependencies, or uncommitted libraries.
GATE 3
Negative Controls & Oracle Invariants
Ground-truth reference inputs must yield strictly WER=0.0 and F1=1.0. Null inputs must yield strictly WER=1.0 and F1=0.0. Digital silence evaluated for false positive insertions.
GATE 4
Schema Validity & Numerical Integrity
Evaluation ledgers conform to strict schemas with zero missing fields, undefined variables, or NaN/Infinity floating-point artifacts. Exact sample denominators reported.
GATE 5
Statistical Rigor & Uncertainty Bounds
Point estimates alone are forbidden. Every stochastic claim reports 95% confidence intervals derived from stratified non-parametric bootstrapping (≥ 1,000 resamples).
GATE 6
Evidence Boundaries & Bio-Canon
Zero promotional vendor marketing in public copy. Models described by architecture and parameter class. Empirical claims strictly bounded to evaluated distributions.

Institutional Affiliation & Research Contact

RoamingPigs Lab welcomes collaboration on verifier theory, speech foundation model evaluation, and sovereign inference compute.

Direct institutional inquiries, preprint correspondence, and peer replication queries: